Obama and Latin America

As Jasper put it, D-Day is now behind us and, fortunately, Obama won. Now we must start to ask difficult questions about whether or not his presidency will signal meaningful change for the issues that matter to us. I personally am most concerned with his policy towards Latin America. Will he continue with business as usual, employing the same old "carrot and stick" diplomacy and resurrecting the Monroe Doctrine? Or will he scrap Plan Colombia, cease labeling countries as friends or foes, end the embargo on Cuba and make amends with Venezuela?

The answers to these questions are not immediately obvious. Especially since Obama has never visited Latin America and, during the presidential campaign, echoed many of the Bush administrations talking points regarding the region's leftist governments. Did he refer to Chavez and Castro as "enemies" purely because he wanted to win Florida (which he did)? Or is he out of touch with the region's political reality?

As any of you who casually follow the news know, the U.S. has insisted on labeling Chavez a dictator and enemy of the U.S. Despite these claims, it's important to recall that Venezuela's relations with Washington began to deteriorate when Chavez criticized Bush for invading Afghanistan, not due to a fundamental desire to antagonize the U.S. It is also worth recalling that there is significant evidence that the U.S. had a hand in the failed 2002 coup against Chavez. Nevertheless, Chavez has on numerous occasions stated his desire to normalize diplomatic relations with the U.S., especially with an Obama administration. In fact, just yesterday, Chavez reiterated this aim, saying:

"I truly wish (the new president of the United States) to change the imperialist vision; I wish him to suspend the blockade on Cuba (which has been effective since the 1960's); everybody has been asking for it for a long, long time."

The ball's in your side of the court Obama.

Where Colombia is concerned Obama's policy approach is not overwhelmingly obvious either. Obama has given mixed messages about his stance on Uribe's administration. During the Democratic primaries he scored points on Clinton by criticizing her endorsement of the Colombia-U.S. FTA, citing human rights concerns. However, he has somewhat inconsistently praised Uribe's supposed progress in curbing cocaine production and, significantly, failed to condemn Colombia's violation of Ecuador's territorial sovereignty last March (when Colombia bombed a FARC camp in Ecuador).

In this sense, a better indication of Obama's possible approach to Colombia would be to look at Biden's record, which, to be sure, is quite mixed. Back in 2000 Biden was a strong supporter of Plan Colombia but has since balanced his stance.

Where Brazil is concerned, relations with the U.S. have never been strained (just check out this picture for evidence). Lula was quick to congratulate Obama, expressing optimism for the future of U.S.-Latin American relations.

Ecuador's President, Rafael Correa, was more cautious though, stating that he didn't think too much would change for Latin America with Obama as President. Evo Morales, on the other hand, called Obama's election "historic." As Bolivia's first indigenous President, Evo Morales knows a thing or two about historic elections though.